3-Day Forecast

Issued: 2024 May 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2024 is 5 (.67NOAA scale G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown

             May 06       May 07       May 08
00-03UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.33     
03-06UT       5.67 (G2)    3.00         2.67     
06-09UT       5.67 (G2)    2.67         2.67     
09-12UT       4.67 (G1)    1.67         2.00     
12-15UT       3.67         1.67         2.00     
15-18UT       3.67         2.67         1.00     
18-21UT       2.67         3.67         2.00     
21-00UT       2.67         2.67         2.00     

Rationale

G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels are likely on 06 May due to persistent CME activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024

              May 06  May 07  May 08
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale

A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664, over the next three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 05 2024 0601 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06-May 08 2024

              May 06        May 07        May 08
R1-R2           90%           90%           90%
R3 or greater   50%           50%           50%

Rationale

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for R3 (Strong), over the next three days due to the flare potential of multiple regions on the visible disk.