Solar activity report
Below you'll find a daily report brought to you by the NOAA about the solar activity and auroral activity during the past day and the prediction for the coming days. This page is daily updated around midnight.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
05/0601Z from Region 3663 (N26W31). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07
May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/2048Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 05/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
05/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (06 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
III. Event Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 May 177 Predicted 06 May-08 May 180/185/190 90 Day Mean 05 May 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 010/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 024/035-010/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May to 08 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 40% | 35% |
Latest news
Saturday, 4 May 2024
Sunspot region 3663, X1 solar flare
Monday, 22 April 2024
Lot's of sunspots! Big chance for major flare activity?
Saturday, 23 March 2024
X1.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Latest forum messages
2024/05/03 X1.69 CME 25AR3663 170Space Weather Memes 344Weakening of Earths magnetic field due to geomagnetic excursion 14Unspecified geomagnetic activity 1021
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/05/05 | X1.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/05/06 | M1.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/05/02 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2024 | 136.5 +31.6 |
| Last 30 days | 156.6 +63.6 |