Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2024 May 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity reached very high levels with two X-class flares and nine M-class flares observed throughout the period. This period also saw a marked increase of the background X-ray flux and the overall intensity and frequency of flare activity. Region 3663 (N26W31, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X1.3/1b flare at 05/0601 UTC and an X1.2/1b flare at 05/1154 UTC, along with two R2 (Moderate) events and four R1 (Minor) events. Region 3663 continued a trend of growth with consolidation of mixed polarity spots noted in the intermediate spot area. Region 3664 (S19E14, Ekc/beta-delta) increased in areal extent and total spot count, and produced three R1 (Minor) events. Minor growth was observed in new Region 3668 (S17E29, Cao/beta) while new Region 3669 (S08E43, Hrx/alpha) was stable. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. Coronagraph imagery from SOHO/LASCO has been restored following an outage that began around 03/2327 UTC. All CME events which occurred during the outage have been analyzed and no Earth-directed CMEs were detected.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to reach high levels over 06-08 May, with M-class flares expected and a high chance for X-class flares, due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels over 06-08 May. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) storm levels over 06-08 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3663 and 3664.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Ambient solar wind conditions prevailed until around 05/1500 UTC, when a mild enhancement, likely associated with the arrival of the 03 May CME, commenced. Total field strength increased to 14 nT late in the day and the Bz component was sustained southward, by as much as -12 nT, after 05/1830 UTC. Solar wind speeds fluctuated between 300-390 km/s and the phi angle was variable.

Forecast

Mildly enhanced solar wind conditions and positive polarity CH HSS influences are likely to prevail over 06-08 May. A stronger disturbance is expected on 06 May due to the passage of the 03 May CME.

Geospace

24 h Summary

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with the arrival of a CME beginning at around 05/1500 UTC.

Forecast

Periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming are likely on 06 May due to CME activity and positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions are likely on 07 May with the expected onset of another positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 08 May with waning CH HSS influences.